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Jimmy Jean, Vice-President, Chief Economist and Strategist
Marc Desormeaux, Principal Economist • Benoit P. Durocher, Director and Principal Economist
Quebec budget
Quebec: Budget 2024–2025
March 12, 2024
Economic Weakness and Collective Agreement Renewals Make the Path to a Balanced Budget Even More Difficult
- Quebec’s financial plan shows a significant deterioration in public finances. Budget 2024–2025 (FY2025) does not include a plan for a return to budget balance and predicts a record deficit next year.
- This deterioration reflects weaker-than-expected economic conditions after the 2023 technical recession and the cost of public sector wage increases. The latter effect accounts for approximately two-thirds of the rise in spending compared to what had been predicted in the fiscal update published in November 2023.
- Some other financial indicators are less pessimistic. Quebec’s debt-to-GDP ratio is not expected to reach the peak of the early 2010s. This budget also contains an additional $4B in provisions for economic risks in FY2025 to FY2027, which could positively affect the bottom line if it proves unnecessary.
- The new measures are, for the most part, geared toward the health and education sectors and are mainly aimed at enhancing previous plans.
- Quebec’s financing program is now expected to reach $21.5B in FY2024, $36.5B in FY2025 and $32.7B in FY2026, as well as $81B from FY2027 to FY2029.