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Hélène Bégin
Principal Economist
Real GDP Grew 0.3% in July
Highlights
- After stalling in June, Quebec's real GDP bounced back with gains of 0.3% in July.
- This is slightly faster than Canada's 0.2% growth in July.
- For the first seven months of 2024, Quebec's real GDP was 0.8% higher than it was over the same period in 2023—Canada's cumulative growth over that same period was just 0.1%.
- More than half of the main industrial sectors posted gains in July. (See table 1 for more details.)
- Output of goods was up 0.2% in July, while output in the services-producing industries was up 0.4%.
Comments
Real GDP grew a little faster than expected in July, largely due to a rally in the service sector. Strong wholesale and retail trade both contributed to this performance. Inflation is under control and interest rates are going down. These are good news for consumers, and household confidence has indeed been rising for several months now. The labour market is also improving, according to a recent analysis External link., and hiring rose for the second straight month in September.
While goods output rose 0.2%, several industries are on a downward trend, including utilities, manufacturing and construction. In all of these sectors, cumulative production since the start of the year has dropped compared to the same period in 2023. All the same, small business confidence External link. is recovering, which suggests that businesses won't have to wait much longer before feeling the effects of Quebec's 2024 return to economic growth.
Implications
While real GDP made solid gains in July, this growth largely came from consumer spending. The goods-producing sector is still a bit shaky. All the same, many indicators suggest that Quebec's economy is still looking good. The economy should continue to grow in the coming months. There are still a number of global uncertainties to contend with, though, and our recent analysis External link. suggests that the result of the US presidential election will have a significant effect on Canada's economy—and Quebec's as well.