The Quebec Job Market Sustains Its Momentum Despite the Looming Tariff Threat

The Labour Force Survey was conducted in mid-January, so it may already seem outdated given recent events. The new US administration's tariff threat has shaken the markets over the past few weeks, calling into question our business relationship with our long-standing ally.

But today’s data suggest that the Quebec economy rested on solid fundamentals at the start of the current turmoil. The past six months have been one of the Quebec job market’s most robust growth periods in recent years, apart from the post-pandemic rebound.

The manufacturing sector’s strength is well-timed, although we must put it into context: Year-on-year, a total of 7,900 jobs were created. The sector remains vulnerable to the unpredictability of current events and the outlook for exports.

Although today’s numbers were positive, they don’t erase the fact that uncertainty has gone up a notch in recent weeks. The Canadian and Quebec economies are particularly vulnerable to tougher protectionist measures from the US, the world's largest economy and our main trading partner.

Our recent study External link. shows that the manufacturing sectors are especially vulnerable to a tariff shock. The Quebec companies that face the most risk are manufacturers in the aerospace products and parts, food and beverage, chemicals and machinery sectors. We’ve published an initial estimate External link. of the economic impact of the proposed tariffs. Although the one-month tariff reprieve means our predictions haven’t come to pass, they remain relevant if tariffs are ultimately imposed.

More than one in ten jobs in Quebec are in the manufacturing sector. This industry drives innovation and offers a wide range of jobs for people with a variety of qualifications, strengthening the economic vitality of many Quebec regions. The federal and provincial governments are preparing plans to weather the economic consequences if tariffs are, in fact, imposed after the 30-day pause. The fact that they’re fast-tracking efforts to reduce barriers to interprovincial trade shows just how serious the threat is.